NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Theme : Population & Associated Issues.
Paper : GS - 1
Earlier this year, the United Nations published data to show that India would surpass China as the world’s most populous country by 2023. According to the 2018-19 Economic Survey, India’s demographic dividend will peak around 2041, when the share of the working age population is expected to hit 59%.
TABLE OF CONTENT
- Context
- Trends in Global Population
- Malthusian Theory of Population & Growth
- China’s one child policy
- Impacts of Ageing
- Why a Population Policy?
- Road Ahead
Context : Earlier this year, the United Nations published data to show that India would surpass China as the world’s most populous country by 2023. According to the 2018-19 Economic Survey, India’s demographic dividend will peak around 2041, when the share of the working age population is expected to hit 59%.
Trends in Global Population :
- The world’s population is expected to hit a peak and then drop by the end of the century. We need to move from a family planning approach to a family welfare approach. We should be focusing on empowering men and women in being able to make informed choices about their fertility, health and well-being.
- As fertility drops and lifespans rise globally, the world is ageing at a significant pace. Can increasing automation counteract the negative effects of an ageing population or will an ageing population inevitably end up causing a slowdown in economic growth?
Malthusian Theory of Population & Growth :
- Malthus had said as the population grows, productivity will not be able to keep pace with this growth, and we will see famines, higher mortality, wars, etc. but technological growth and welfare policy of governments proved Malthusian theory of population and growth as wrong. We need to take a lesson out of this and think about how to make our present population productive. Skills are important, but so is economic planning that ensures good jobs, agricultural productivity, etc.
China’s one child policy :
- China’s one-child policy led to a sharp reduction in the population growth rate. But now the Chinese have a rapidly rising population of the elderly. China also tried to relax these policies and is now encouraging people to have two or even three children but the men and women are not ready to comply. And China’s fertility continues to decline.
- So, we should focus not on fertility rate, but on creating a situation in which slow changes in the family size take place in the context of a growing economy.
Impacts of Ageing :
- Estimates show that 12% of India’s total population by 2025 is going to be the elderly. Every fifth Indian by 2050 will be over the age of 65. So planning for this segment merits equal consideration.
- Coming back to the young, we have the capacity to tap into the potential of our youth population. There is a brief window of opportunity, which is only there for the next few decades. We need to invest in adolescent well-being right away, if we want to reap the benefits. Otherwise, our demographic dividend could turn easily into a demographic disaster.
Why a Population Policy?
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National population policy, 2000 was designed with following objectives:
- Address the unmet needs for contraception;
- health care infrastructure and personnel
- provide integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child health care;
- Reduce IMR,MMR, TFR by certain levels ;
- Prevent and control communicable diseases;
- free and compulsory school education up to 14 years of age ;
- promoting delayed marriage for girls ;
- promote small family norms .
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States also have their population policies. Uttar Pradesh (UP), for example, has launched a population policy for 2021-2030 that aims to achieve for the state similar targets as NPP, 2000.
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The state would also attempt to “maintain a balance of population among the various communities”. Awareness and extensive programmes would be held among communities, cadres and geographical areas that have a higher fertility rate.
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However, UP’s population policy has been criticized on following grounds:
- It comes at a time when India has already gone below TFR (As per NFHS 5, India for first time achieved TFR= 2.0 in 2021)
- The young and populous states like UP, Bihar balance the ageing states like Kerala and Karnataka.
- Undue focus of the state population policy on religious communities seen as targeting Indian minority groups and perpetuating stereotypes about them.
Road Ahead :
- We need to tweak our population policy goals and add ageing to our population policy focus.
- What we need is a policy that supports reproductive health for individuals. We also need to start focusing on other challenges that go along with enhancing reproductive health, which is not just the provision of family planning services.
- Although we use the term population policy, population control still remains a part of our dialogue.
- We need to maybe call it a policy that enhances population as resources for India’s development, and change the mindset to focus on ensuring that the population is happy, healthy, productive.
FAQs :
1. What is the Impact of China’s One Child Policy?
Answer : China’s one-child policy led to a sharp reduction in the population growth rate. But now the Chinese have a rapidly rising population of the elderly. China also tried to relax these policies and is now encouraging people to have two or even three children but the men and women are not ready to comply. And China’s fertility continues to decline.
2. What are Important predictions about Demographic Dividend?
Answer : According to the 2018-19 Economic Survey, India’s demographic dividend will peak around 2041, when the share of the working age population is expected to hit 59%.